The political atmosphere in Oyo state grows thicker by the day as governorship aspirants from different regions and parties begin to show interest by the day.
Amongst the contending regions, Ibadan and Oke-Ogun stand out as the hotbeds of ambition — producing the highest number of aspirants in the coming general election.
From Ibadan, the list is long and formidable: Adebayo Adelabu (Penkelemesi), former Senate Leader, Teslim Kolawole Folarin, Barr. Akeem Agbaje, Oloye Adegboyega Adegoke, Saheed Baameko, Niyi Aborisade, and Dr. Adewale Kolapo Kareem (AKK), among others, have shown interest in succeeding Makinde.
Interestingly, as always, the governorship seat is only one — and no matter how intense the jostling, only one man will wear the crown at the end of the contest.
At present, the names of Adebayo Adelabu, the current Minister of Power and Teslim Kolawole Folarin, former Senate Leader and Oyo APC gubernatorial candidate for 2023 tops the list from Ibadan.
Both are household names, yet each carries distinct strengths and heavy baggages.
Adelabu flaunts NOT impressive credentials and performances, especially with his current appointment as the Minister for Power and previous outings in politics, BUT his deep pockets , using millions of Naira as the only language to establish visibility are his remarkable assets, however , he faces the uphill task of rallying cohesive support even within his Ibadan base.
You will recall that he left the APC in 2023 after failing to clinch the gubernatorial ticket and contested against Folarin on the platform of the Accord Party, AP.
Not only that, he made some disparaging remarks against the APC while he was the gubernatorial candidate of the Accord Party and videos of such disparaging remarks still surface occasionally till today, any time his admirers tried to market him.
This development raises a serious challenge to his efforts to project himself as a frontline aspirant.
I believe, even Adelabu would be blaming himself for his open and reckless hostilities against the APC as the Candidate of the Accord Party in 2023.
He should have been careful enough not to openly and rigorously attack the APC as he did in 2023 because of days like this.
Folarin, on the other hand is an experienced politician, widely recognized, but a lot of people are worried about the fact that both himself and Adelabu have unresolved political scores to settle and this would definitely be a strong impediment against party cohesion and success if he is presented as Candidate of the APC in 2027.
This scenario presented itself during the last By election for Ibadan North Federal Constituency.
This is not to say that there are no other aspirants from Ibadan, infact, you have Barr. Akeem Agbaje and Pastor Remi Oseni, but the fact remains that the two names of Folarin and Adelabu are the most prominent ones being mentioned for now.
However, as political realities evolve, a stronger and louder agitation for power rotation away from Ibadan has been gaining momentum and the pressure continues.
Advocates of fairness and inclusion insist that the time has come for other zones comprising of with 22 local Governments, particularly , Oke-Ogun—to have their turn to lead the state.
Since 1999, Ibadan has dominated Oyo’s governorship, except for the brief spell by Ogbomoso through the late Governor Adebayo Alao Akala.
Groups like Egbe Ajosepọo fun Itesiwaju Gbogbo Wa and G22 Renewed have intensified their advocacy, urging all major parties to embrace the spirit of fairness, justice and equity by allowing power to shift from Ibadan.
Indeed, Oke-Ogun’s argument is compelling, with ten local governments, impressive voting strength, and a population that ranks next to Ibadan, the region stands as the natural choice to produce the Governor of Oyo state in 2027.
I also think that ceding the governorship seat to Oke- Ogun will help resolve the problems of having to choose between two or more bitter political rivals from Ibadan, more so that other regions have begun to agitate for power shift.
From the look of things, a repeat of the bitter experience of 2023, when unresolved political bitterness caused the failure of the party is still very possible if a candidate is chosen from amongst the contending forces from Ibadan.
I do not think Oke- Ogun will mismanage the opportunity of a lifetime if it is given to them.
I see them savoring the wonderful opportunity and rewarding the APC with overwhelming number of votes.
This is a difficult position for me to hold but it is not only the truth, it is the only route to victory for the APC in 2027.
Some of us have friends and acquitances from the numerous aspirants from Ibadan but the experience of the past few years is harrowing to say the least and we all know exactly how we got here.
Must we travel the same perilous route in 2027?
Can anyone tell me in all honesty that anything has changed from where we were in 2027?
If something has changed, would we have lost that woefully in Ibadan North?
Power rotation to Oke Ogun is the only way I see for the APC to bring the much needed cohesion to the Party.
When we were growing up, when two or more children began to fight over an object, the Elders used to resolve the fight by taking the object away from them and they would give it to a neutral child to assuage the egos of the quarrelling children.
This time around, Oke-Ogun have shown greater hunger for the Governorship seat.
We can leverage on this hunger to get back to Agodi.
There are prominent APC aspirants from Oke-Ogun.
Dr. Kazeem Ayandoye a MUSLIM; Engr. Rauf Aderemi Olaniyan- a MUSLIM;Barr. Bayo Shittu- a MUSLIM; Col. [rtd] Gbenga Emmanuel Adegbola – a CHRISTIAN; and Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin – a CHRISTIAN, are all from Oke-Ogun.
The PDP also have Barr. Beulah Adeoye -a CHRISTIAN.
Who knows if he will be Seyi Makinde’s joker?
There are also speculations that Sen. Hosea Agboola, (Alleluyah ) – a CHRISTIAN, may also join the race, possibly under the APC banner, though he has yet to declare openly.
At this stage, the APC must thread carefully.
The internal crisis bedeviling the PDP both Nationally and in Oyo state offers a rare opportunity for the progressives—if only they can avoid the same pitfalls of the past, failing to picking the Party candidate outside IBADAN.
The party’s leadership must listen to reason and respond to the growing calls for justice, inclusion, and balance, by considering Oke-Ogun, a region with 10 Local Governments that has never produced a governor in the history of Oyo state.
Together, let us examine the following aspirants for the position of the governor of Oyo state from Oke-Ogun under the APC:
Dr. (Col.) Gbenga Adegbola (rtd.)
An aspirant with military experience that gives him advantage in the area of security.
He is a new entrant into partisan politics and will be new to civil Administration.
He is from Saki. As a gubernatorial candidate from Oke-Ogun, he offers the advantages of a people who have been hungry for change but I must admit that there could be issues with entrenched interests across other zones as he is not very feasible aside from Oke Ogun.
Politics is about interests. Whether personal or community interests.
The holder of the office of a Governor must be seen as one who is well known and trusted by diverse Groups and interests.
Dr. Kazeem Ayandoye
An articulate, grassroots-inclined politician with prior electoral experience, serially contesting in the last 6 electoral cycles.
His political exposure and advocacy for democracy stands to his favor.
However, his past records of party switching at each electoral cycle and modest statewide visibility remain a concern.
He is relatively obscure politically in APC.
Engr. Rauf Aderemi Olaniyan
The former immediate Deputy Governor of Oyo state is an experienced technocrat who rose to the level of Permanent Secretary in the Service of Oyo State before retirement.
An experienced politician with grassroots reach and appeal.
His administrative depth and regional influence are strong assets that stands him out.
Deeply rooted in IBADAN, because of his Civil Service exposure.
He also has businesses in Ibadan.
He is a liberal Muslim not a fundamentalist. He has friends across different religious backgrounds.
He brings to the table, experience and Oke-Ogun’s rotational advantage, but he could have issues with internal party skepticism.
Barr. Bayo Shittu
A seasoned politician with unmatched experience as a former Legislator, Commissioner, state Attorney general, and Federal Minister.
His National exposure and name recognition are undeniable strengths.
Yet, his long political career may cast him as part of the old order in an era yearning for renewal.
His wide network remains amongst the Muslims as an advantage as the Muslims will clamour for a Muslim Governor after Governor Seyi Makinde, but the push for generational change and youthful leadership threatens his prospects appeal.
He is perceived as lacking in religious tolerance to manage a diverse society like Oyo state.
This is a factor that people have continued to show concern about whenever they hear about this aspirant.
Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin
A refined technocrat with governance experience, and intellectual authority.
His biggest drawback is his lack of grassroots appeal, visibility and lack of a formidable political structure.
Even in his Local Government, he is politically unknown.
He has not been identifying himself with the Politicians in Oke Ogun talk less of the whole of Oyo State.
He has a unique opportunity to position himself as a development-focused alternative, but faces threats from career politicians and local tensions over Okeho’s recent perceived dominance within Oke-Ogun region.
The Religious Factor:
Religion, as always, may also influence the equation.
With the incumbent governor being a Christian, a great deal of citizens believe it should be the turn of the Muslim community to produce Oyo’s next Governor . ( I also agree with them though am a Christian, but my position is drawn in the interest of fairness justice and equity).
If this sentiment gains traction, Christian aspirants may need to reconsider their strategy to align with the state’s religious balance.
Conclusion:
As Oyo state inches closer to 2027, the unfolding political drama will test the wisdom and maturity of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The party has before it a historic opportunity to correct long-standing imbalances and reaffirm its reputation as the true home of fairness, inclusion, and progress.
If the APC chooses wisely—listening to the people’s cry from Oke-Ogun and embracing equity—it will not only strengthen its unity but also secure a resounding victory at the polls.
The future of Oyo depends on such wisdom.
Sola Abegunde
